10th February 2026

MACRO

US Policy & Fed

The Trump administration is planning to spare Amazon, Google and Microsoft from forthcoming chip tariffs as they race to build AI data centres. The commerce department carve-outs would be tied to TSMC investment commitments.

Trump said Kevin Warsh can stoke the economy to grow at 15% - an exceedingly rosy target underscoring the pressure his Fed chair nominee will face. Fed Governor Miran said the dollar would need a steeper fall to become a first-order inflation issue, and that the Fed’s balance sheet needs to be smaller but that shouldn’t preclude large-scale asset purchases during a crisis.

House Republicans advanced a motion to block a vote on Trump’s tariff agenda, potentially delaying it until at least July. A growing number of lawmakers are calling on Commerce Secretary Lutnick to resign over Epstein links.

(Financial Times, Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal)

US-China & Trade

Senior Treasury staff visited China last week “to strengthen channels of communication,” Bessent said. Officials discussed preparations for the next high-level meeting between Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng.

The Pentagon has warned defence contractors to brace for sweeping performance reviews that will identify companies not fulfilling their contracts. Trump threatened not to allow the opening of a new Detroit-Canada bridge, marking the latest source of political tension.

(Reuters, Wall Street Journal)

Climate Policy Rollback

The Trump administration is planning to repeal the Obama-era scientific finding that serves as the legal basis for federal greenhouse-gas regulation - the most far-reaching rollback of US climate policy to date.

(Wall Street Journal)

Japan: Markets Rally on Takaichi Mandate

The Nikkei closed at a record high on strong earnings, SoftBank strength and momentum from PM Takaichi’s landslide victory. Analysts forecast foreign buying could surge five-fold, possibly surpassing Abe-era levels.

Finance Minister Katayama said using surplus from Japan’s $1.4 trillion forex reserves could be considered to fund food sales tax cuts instead of issuing debt. JGBs gained as investors grew confident increased fiscal spending can be digested. Fitch said the election points to more expansionary fiscal settings, though risks remain that stimulus could prove larger than baseline.

The government is set to submit BOJ board nominees as early as 25 February to replace economist Asahi Noguchi. Trade Minister Akazawa and Commerce Secretary Lutnick will meet this week to discuss the first project funded via the $550 billion US-Japan investment vehicle.

(Reuters, Bloomberg)

China: Bonds, IPOs and Growth Strategy

Chinese government bonds’ recent recovery is drawing more traders into derivatives, reflecting stronger demand for safety and hedging. Local governments are shifting from high-volume listings to prioritising “high-quality” tech IPOs and “patient capital.”

China’s three major stock exchanges introduced measures to streamline refinancing for some listed companies, allowing high-growth enterprises to bypass traditional collateral requirements. Six provinces in central China are positioning themselves as a new growth engine, pivoting toward consumption and infrastructure. The main coal industry body sees imports dropping this year after Indonesia’s restrictions.

(Bloomberg, China Securities Journal, Xinhua, Shanghai Securities News)

Europe: Macron Calls for “Economic Revolution”

Macron said the EU needs to get tougher with Trump, who is pushing for “dismemberment” of the bloc. He called for an economic “revolution” of “protection which is not protectionism” and warned the EU should not be lulled into false security that US tensions are over.

Investors are pouring billions into European AI and defence tech startups. Total European VC investment rose 5% to €66 billion in 2025, a post-pandemic high.

(Bloomberg, Financial Times)

UK: Retail Boost, Inflation Concerns

UK shoppers delaying purchases until January sales delivered a boost to retail spending growth. The value of retail sales increased 2.7% year-on-year, up from 1.2% in December.

BOE’s Mann said Trump’s trade wars are contributing to UK inflation as China raises export prices to recover US tariff costs. A record share of people say taxes and public spending should be cut, according to the British Social Attitudes report. The government awarded 189 revenue-guarantee contracts for new renewable projects.

(Financial Times, Bloomberg)

Asia-Pacific Roundup

Australia’s consumer sentiment slipped after the RBA became the first major central bank to hike this year. Indian investors poured more money into gold ETFs than equity funds in January - a rare crossover.

South Korean stocks have yet to close their long-held discount despite a $1.7 trillion rally. Bank of America nearly doubled its Taiwan growth prediction after a rip-roaring 2025. Taiwan reiterated support for nuclear power to secure stable electricity for chipmaking.

Singapore upgraded its economic outlook on AI-infrastructure demand. Foreigners bought the most Thai stocks in four years after the election. FTSE Russell became the latest index provider to raise concerns over Indonesia’s investability, following MSCI warnings.

(Bloomberg)

GEOPOLITICAL

China-Taiwan Tensions

China will offer firm support for “patriotic pro-reunification forces” in Taiwan and strike hard against “separatists,” the top Chinese official said. Chinese fighter jets carried out unusually dangerous manoeuvres near Taiwanese F-16s during December’s “Justice Mission” exercise.

China released a white paper on Hong Kong’s practice of safeguarding national security.

(Reuters, Financial Times)

Ukraine & Russia

Lavrov said there was no reason to be enthusiastic about Trump’s pressure on Europe and Ukraine as there was still a long way to go in peace talks.

(Reuters)

Middle East & Sanctions

Adani Enterprises said the US has sought information after a media report alleged it imported Iranian oil products into India.

Indonesia is preparing to send up to 8,000 troops to Gaza in support of Trump’s peace plan - the first country to publicly commit soldiers.

(Bloomberg, Financial Times)

EQUITIES

Semiconductors & AI Infrastructure

TSMC’s January sales grew 37% year-on-year, the fastest clip in months and a sign of sustained global AI spending. Bloomberg profiles how the memory chip crunch is rippling through markets with worse expected ahead.

Credo Technology jumped 16% after preliminary Q3 revenue of $404-408 million crushed the $335-345 million guide. The company expects more than 200% year-on-year growth this fiscal year. On Semiconductor’s revenue fell in Q4 as its two biggest units continue posting declines.

Samsung, having attracted major US and Japanese foundry clients last year, is now building its customer base in Europe.

(Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, Chosun via @jukan05)

Big Tech & AI

OpenAI is retiring its 4o model on 13 February. The model, popular for forging emotional connections, has been linked to users developing psychotic delusions and is the subject of lawsuits.

A lawyer told jurors Meta and YouTube deliberately designed products they knew would addict children, in a trial testing whether Big Tech can be held liable for app design. Alphabet is selling Swiss franc-denominated bonds for the first time, following a $20 billion US deal.

Alibaba debuted an AI model to help robots and other devices perform real-world tasks. Australia’s government summoned Roblox executives to explain reports of children as young as four being groomed on the service.

(Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Bloomberg)

Autos

Honda’s Q3 operating profit fell 61.4%, marking a fourth consecutive year-on-year decline on tariffs and EV market changes. BYD has joined hundreds of companies pushing to be refunded for duties paid under Trump’s tariffs.

(Reuters, Bloomberg)

European Corporates

Barclays’ Q4 profits rose 12% on investment bank strength. The lender plans to return £15 billion to shareholders. BP suspended its quarterly buyback for the first time since 2020 to strengthen its balance sheet as oil prices weaken.

Kering reported accelerating sales growth in Q4 as its revamp plan gains traction. AstraZeneca expects continued sales growth this year. Standard Chartered’s CFO is leaving for Apollo. Monte dei Paschi Q4 profit met expectations. Philips proposed extending its CEO’s tenure.

(Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg)

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