11th March 2026

MIDDLE EAST

IEA Proposes Largest Reserve Release in History

The headline overnight: the International Energy Agency has proposed releasing more oil from strategic reserves than at any point in its history. The WSJ reported the proposal would exceed the 182 million barrels deployed in two tranches during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine crisis. IEA members held an extraordinary meeting on Tuesday and are expected to decide on Wednesday. The plan would proceed if no country objects, though a single dissent could delay it. G7 countries are “generally supportive.” Outreach may extend to non-IEA members including China and India. Oil fell on the report. (WSJ/Bloomberg/Reuters)

This is the first concrete supply-side intervention of the conflict. The G7 talked about reserves on Monday and committed to nothing. The IEA proposal has specifics and a vote date. Whether it changes the physical picture depends entirely on the volumes, the timeline, and whether Hormuz reopens. Releasing reserves into a market where the Strait is still closed and Gulf producers are still shut in is like pouring water into a bucket with a hole in it.

Heaviest Day of Strikes Despite “Very Complete” Talk

Tuesday saw the most intense military operations against Iran since the war began, according to defence officials. Hegseth described it as the heaviest day of strikes yet. This happened on the same day markets were celebrating Trump’s “very complete, pretty much” comments. The disconnect between the military reality and the market narrative is now extreme. Israel also struck an apartment building in central Beirut and launched fresh strikes on Tehran and Tabriz. (Reuters/CNN)

Mines, Minelayers, and a Cargo Ship Hit

Iran is laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The US destroyed 16 Iranian minelaying vessels. A cargo ship was hit by a projectile in the Strait and the crew evacuated. The Strait has been described as a “death valley.” The mine threat adds weeks to any reopening timeline because mines require dedicated sweeping operations. Destroying minelayers does not remove mines already in the water. Iran retains 80-90% of its small craft fleet. (CNN/CNBC)

The Wright Tweet Fallout Continues

The Energy Secretary’s deleted false claim that the Navy had escorted a tanker through Hormuz continues to reverberate. Iran’s FM Araghchi called it “fake news to manipulate markets.” The White House confirmed it was false. Oil fell 17% on the tweet and did not fully recover. The Energy Department blamed “incorrectly captioned” staff content. (CNBC/Al Jazeera)

Drone Hits US Baghdad Facility

A suspected Iranian drone struck a US diplomatic support centre near Baghdad airport. No injuries reported. Iran continues targeting American installations across the region. A Russian consulate in Iran’s Isfahan was also damaged in strikes. (CNN/Reuters)

Australia Shuts Embassies, Expects Intensification

Australia expects the Iran war to intensify and has shut some Middle East embassies. The UK banned a pro-Iranian march in London due to “extreme tensions.” Macron is hosting a G7 leaders call on the crisis and energy prices. (Reuters)

MACRO

ECB: Nagel Says They Will React

This is significant. ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel, the Bundesbank president and one of the more hawkish voices on the council, said the ECB will react if the Iran war pushes up inflation. This is the first explicit policy signal from a major European central banker. France’s central bank chief offered a softer view, saying French inflation would remain low despite the war. German inflation was confirmed at 2.0% for February. (Reuters)

Three Australian Banks Expect Rate Hike

Three of Australia’s Big Four banks now forecast the RBA will raise interest rates next week. The oil shock has shifted the inflation calculus. RBA’s Hauser said the policy debate would be “genuine.” This would be the first rate hike since the conflict began and a direct consequence of oil-driven imported inflation. (Reuters)

Japan: Wholesale Inflation Cools, BOJ Still on Track

Japanese wholesale prices eased, but the oil shock threatens a rebound. A Reuters poll found the BOJ is still expected to raise rates next quarter, with expectations unchanged by the war. Japan’s wholesale inflation is the leading edge of the pass-through from oil to consumer prices. (Reuters)

Diesel Markets Threaten Slowdown

Diesel markets, heavily disrupted by the conflict, are now threatening a global economic slowdown. Diesel powers freight, agriculture, and heavy industry. Its price feeds directly into transport costs, food prices, and manufacturing expenses. This is where the oil shock hits the real economy hardest. (Reuters)

China Auto Sales Drop Fastest in Two Years

Chinese auto sales fell at their fastest pace in two years in February, with the Iran war casting a pall over export prospects. This is notable because China’s auto exports had been one of the strongest growth stories of the past two years. (Reuters)

GEOPOLITICAL

Carlyle Exits Colombian Oil

Carlyle is selling Colombian oil firm SierraCol to the Philippines’ Prime Infrastructure. The deal is part of a broader reshuffling of energy assets during the conflict. (Reuters)

Anduril Acquires ExoAnalytic

Anduril is acquiring space surveillance firm ExoAnalytic as it builds capabilities for the Golden Dome programme. The defence tech sector continues to accelerate. Boeing signed a $289 million contract with Israel for 5,000 smart bombs. (Reuters)

Other Geopolitical

Zelenskiy says Ukraine hit a key Russian missile plant in Bryansk. Russian drones killed two in Kharkiv. North Korea’s Kim Yo Jong criticised US-South Korea drills. El Salvador likely committed crimes against humanity during its state of emergency (jurists). (Reuters)

EQUITIES

Oracle: AI Boom Through 2027

Oracle shares surged 8% after the company projected AI-driven growth extending through at least 2027. The results stand out in a week dominated by geopolitical headlines and provide evidence that AI capex remains robust. (Reuters)

Microsoft Backs Anthropic in Court

Microsoft filed an amicus brief supporting Anthropic’s challenge to the Pentagon’s supply chain risk designation. The brief argued the label sets a dangerous precedent for the entire technology industry. ChatGPT and other AI chatbots were approved for official use in the US Senate. OpenAI plans to launch its Sora video tool in ChatGPT. (Reuters/NYT)

JPMorgan Marks Down Private Credit

JPMorgan has written down loan portfolios held by private credit groups, the FT reported. This follows Goldman’s move to offer hedge funds products to short corporate loans. Credit stress is migrating from sentiment to balance sheets. Patterson-UTI said higher oil prices will not spur more US production, contradicting the assumption that shale can fill the Hormuz gap. (FT/Reuters)

Trump Announces Reliance Refinery

A new oil refinery on the Texas border, backed by India’s Reliance Industries, was announced by Trump. SoftBank’s PayPay plans to price its US IPO at the low end of the range. Starboard nominated two directors to CarMax’s board. Porsche’s new CEO is planning a product overhaul after 2025’s tailspin. Canal+ is tapping Google’s AI for video production. (Reuters)

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