14th April 2025

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TRADE:

• The Trump administration announced in a filing late Friday that smartphones and several other categories of products such as semiconductors would be exempt from tariffs imposed earlier this month, amounting to a reprieve for Apple and others that make many items in China. (WSJ)
• Trump posted on Truth Social on Sunday that his administration is looking at semiconductors and the electronics supply chain as part of upcoming national security tariff investigations, whilst saying "NOBODY is getting “off the hook” for the unfair Trade Balances, and Non Monetary Tariff Barriers, that other Countries have used against us, especially not China which, by far, treats us the worst!" (Truth)
• Trump on Sunday told reporters he would be announcing the tariff rate on imported semiconductors over the next week, adding that there would be flexibility with some companies in the sector. He also said on Saturday that he would provide an update to chip tariffs on Monday. (RTRS)
• US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said on Sunday that smartphones, computers and some other electronics, just exempted from steep tariffs on imports from China, would face separate new duties along with semiconductors within the next two months. (ABC)
• US Commerce Secretary Lutnick recently called some computer-industry chief executives and told them consumer products would be part of the coming semiconductor action, according to a WSJ source. (WSJ)
• USTR Greer said on Sunday the electronics that were exempted from President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs will still be subject to tariffs, just under a different category. (RTRS)
• While substantial confusion remains about what precisely the White House will want from trade talks, a clearer picture of what these bilateral deals could look like is beginning to emerge, according to Washington Post sources. (WaPo)
• China’s government said the US decision to exempt certain consumer electronics from its so-called reciprocal tariffs is a small step toward rectifying its wrongdoings and urged Washington to do more to revoke the levies. (BBG)
• Chinese President Xi warned that US protectionism will “lead nowhere” as the Chinese leader embarked on a tour of Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia to strengthen ties. (FT)
• South Korea's acting President Han Duck-soo said on Monday Trump appeared to have directed talks on tariffs to begin immediately with South Korea, Japan and India. (Yonhap)
• The UK has suspended import tariffs on 89 products and increased the loan facility for exporters to ease the strain on British businesses following the drastic imposition of US levies. (FT)
• Thailand will hold tariff discussions in Washington on April 21st. (RTRS)
• Indonesia may offer Indonesian state firms to invest in US oil, gas and tech sectors, according to the Investment Deputy Minister, who said Indonesia is offering to increase imports of US goods to $18–$19 billion. (RTRS)
• India will start sector-specific trade discussions with the US on Monday, according to a New Delhi official. By end of May, both sides aim to have clarity on the sectors where they have room for concessions, the official added. (BBG)

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MACRO:

• The US dollar’s status as a haven for global capital could come under threat from erratic policymaking and rising trade barriers, fund managers warn. (FT)
• Some of the world’s biggest pension funds, specifcally in Canada and Denmark, are halting or reassessing their private market investments into the US, saying they will not resume until the country stabilises after Trump’s erratic policy blitz. (FT)
• Citigroup downgraded its stance on U.S. equities to "neutral" from "overweight", saying it expects Trump's sweeping tariffs to impact earnings growth in the region. The brokerage also upgraded Japan equities to "overweight" from "underweight," and downgraded emerging markets equities to "underweight" from "neutral". (RTRS)
• The White House physician said Trump remains in excellent health and his high cholesterol is "well controlled," two days after Trump underwent a routine physical. (RTRS)
• US Treasuries may have hit the bottom for now amid signs of robust foreign demand and expectations for the Federal Reserve to support US government debt when needed, according to JPMorgan Asset Management, who said there has been a complete deleveraging of Treasury positions, including basis trades, swap spread trades, US/German spread trades. (BBG)
• Energy prices are set to be lower under the current US administration than in the prior one, according to US Energy Secretary Chris Wright. (BBG)
• China's export growth beat expectations in March (+12.4% Y/Y vs exp. +4.4%) after factories rushed out shipments before the latest US tariffs took effect. Meanwhile, imports fell deeper than expected (-4.3% vs exp. -8.4%). (RTRS)
• New bank loans in China rebounded more than expected in March, recovering from a sharp drop the previous month. (RTRS)
• Chinese President Xi called for stronger industrial and supply chain cooperation with Vietnam and wider collaboration in emerging fields, the Chinese foreign ministry said. (RTRS)
• Trump’s latest tariff exemptions on consumer electronics and semiconductors could reduce the negative impact on China’s economy by 0.4 percentage points, if it were to last, according to Citigroup Inc. (BBG)
• Goldman Sachs strats have cut their targets for key Chinese stock indexes for a second time this month, citing heightened trade tensions with the US. (BBG)
• Japan must strengthen the yen, such as by helping boost the country's industrial competitiveness, as the currency's weakness has pushed up households' living costs, the ruling party's policy chief said on Sunday, who also said Japan should not intentionally sell its US Treasury holdings. (RTRS)
• BoJ Governor Ueda said on Monday, "U.S. tariffs will likely put downward pressure on global and Japanese economies through various channels". (RTRS)
• Goldman Sachs strats says the BoJ may consider pausing its interest-rate hikes if the yen strengthens toward 130 per US dollar and its outlook for sustained inflation dims. (BBG)
• CFTC data showed leveraged funds were the most bullish Yen since January 2021 and asset managers increased their long bets in the week through April 8 to the most positive on record in data going back to 2006. (BBG)
• France will need to find a further €40 billion in savings to reach its 2026 budget deficit target, Finance Minister Eric Lombard said. The government is maintaining its 2026 deficit target of 4.6% of GDP, but will require “additional efforts,” Lombard said in an interview with BFM TV on Sunday. (BBG)
• Spain proposed on Saturday setting up a new defense fund to provide non-refundable grants to beef up Europe’s defense lines and provide support for Ukraine using Russia’s immobilized central bank assets. (BBG)
• BoE's Greene said US tariffs will slow growth but the impact on inflation was less clear because the dollar is not behaving as would be expected. (BBG)
• UK lenders are on the defensive after the BoE set a two-month deadline to respond to worries about liquidity risks in the fast-growing market for sharing credit risks with investors. (FT)
• UK retail bosses raise fears of Chinese ‘dumping’ due to Trump tariffs. (FT)
• London house prices will suffer the most from Trump’s trade war, real estate agents warn, as a global demand slowdown risks hitting the city’s already struggling market. (BBG)
• UK CFOs had adopted their most defensive positions since the pandemic even before Trump’s tariffs sent global markets into a tailspin, according to a Deloitte survey. (BBG)
• Bloomberg economist survey shows the SNB will avoid cutting its interest rate below zero this year in its struggle to contain the strength of the franc Goldman Sachs has the sole forecast for a return to negative borrowing costs. (BBG)
• Singapore eased its monetary policy settings for the second time this year and cut its economic forecasts as US tariffs cloud the outlook for global trade. (BBG)
• Hong Kong’s policymakers are getting close to stage an unusual intervention to cap the local dollar’s gains, as the greenback plummets due to raging trade tensions between US and China. (BBG)
• Goldman Sachs and UBS issued another round of bullish calls for gold, where Goldman now see gold rallying to $3,700 an ounce by the end of this year — with prices set to hit $4,000 an ounce by mid-2026 — while UBS strategist Joni Teves pointed to $3,500 an ounce by December 2025. (BBG)

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• Trump on Sunday reaffirmed that he doesn't think a foreign company should control U.S. Steel, repeating comments made last week that dimmed hopes for a greenlight of a $14 billion bid by Japan's Nippon Steel to buy the firm. (RTRS)
• Binance executives met US Treasury officials last month and discussed loosening government oversight of the company, while exploring a business deal with President Donald Trump’s crypto venture, World Liberty Financial. (WSJ)
• Sony raised the price of its PlayStation 5 console by around 25% in Europe and in the UK ahead of a likely US increase. (BBG)
• SK Hynix has decided to increase its planned CAPEX this year by 30% due to the surge in demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which was already high. (The Elec)
• BNP Paribas has cut its forecast for the return on invested capital on its 5.1 billion euro ($5.8 billion) acquisition of AXA's asset management arm. (RTRS)
• The UK moved to take control of British Steel and keep its blast furnaces open on Saturday, as a minister told an emergency parliamentary session that a full nationalisation of the UK's last maker of virgin steel was becoming increasingly likely. (RTRS)
• Ageas has agreed to buy British car and home insurer esure from Bain Capital for 1.3 billion pounds in a move that will create the third largest personal lines platform in the UK. (RTRS)

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GEOPOLITICS:

• The Kremlin said on Sunday contacts with Trump's team were moving ahead very well but that it was too early to expect instant results due to the level of damage done to relations under Trump's predecessor Joe Biden. (RTRS)
• Russia’s budget may be as much as 2.5% lower than expected in 2025 if crude prices stay at current levels. That would force the Kremlin to increase borrowing, cut nonmilitary spending or draw down its remaining reserves. (FT)
• US and Ukrainian officials met on Friday on a U.S. proposal to gain access to Ukraine's mineral wealth, but sources said that prospects for a breakthrough were scant given the meeting's "antagonistic" atmosphere. (RTRS)
• Trump told reporters on Sunday that he expected to make a decision on Iran very quickly, after both countries said they held "positive" and "constructive" talks in Oman on Saturday and agreed to reconvene this week. (RTRS)
• A second round of nuclear talks between the US and Iran are expected to take place next Saturday in Rome. (Axios)
• Donald Trump plans to stockpile deep sea critical metals to counter China. (FT)

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EQUITIES:

• Apple executives had even been in contact with Trump administration officials about the Chinese tariffs in recent days. (NYT)
• TSMC plans to begin construction of its 3rd Arizona fab in June, a year ahead of schedule, as it deals with US tariffs according to suppliers cited in Asian press.

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