17th December 2025

MACRO

UK Inflation Falls, Clearing Path for Rate Cut

UK inflation slipped to its lowest level in eight months, a bigger-than-expected drop that clears the path to a Bank of England rate cut on Thursday.

Price pressures cooled across the board, with food inflation easing to 4% and growth in alcohol and tobacco prices falling to 4%.

British employers plan to offer staff pay settlements averaging 3% next year, in line with recent agreements.

(Bloomberg, Reuters)

Trump Officials Doubt Hassett for Fed Chair

Some Trump administration officials have privately raised doubts about the possible selection of NEC Director Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve chair.

Congress won’t be able to extend federal health insurance subsidies before leaving for the holidays, ending hopes for a last-minute deal and punting any fix into the new year.

The Trump administration also expanded its travel ban to cover five additional countries and added partial bans on 15 more.

(Politico, Wall Street Journal)

Bank of Japan Set to Hike as Exports Rise

Japan’s exports rose for a third straight month in November, further supporting expectations for an interest rate hike this week.

Japanese households stepped up their quest for yield, boosting risk assets to more than a fifth of their total assets for the first time as prolonged inflation erodes the value of cash holdings.

The ruling coalition is discussing raising income taxes from 2027 to help pay for higher defence spending, breaking a three-year stalemate.

Japanese lawmakers also aim to roll out new taxes on electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids.

The US and Japan are set to review energy projects as potential debut investments in a landmark $550 billion joint fund.

(Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Nikkei)

Chinese Stocks Rally as Tech Enthusiasm Returns

Chinese stocks rose sharply on Wednesday as enthusiasm around technology shares returned, fueled by large gains in recent IPOs.

China’s 2026 fiscal deficit target is expected to match or exceed this year’s 4% of GDP, sustaining fiscal expansion while preventing debt risks from accumulating too rapidly.

Chinese visitor growth to Japan slowed in November to its weakest pace in nearly four years as Beijing curbed travel amid rising tensions over Taiwan remarks.

Major Chinese state-owned banks are clearing out inactive personal accounts linked to the Shanghai Gold Exchange following a new gold tax policy.

(Bloomberg, Securities Times, Shanghai Securities News)

Germany Approves €50 Billion in Military Purchases

Germany’s parliament is set to approve more than €50 billion in military purchases, rounding off a bumper year as the EU’s largest nation ploughs ahead with vast rearmament.

(Financial Times)

UK Defence and EV Policy Updates

PM Starmer has asked military chiefs to rework aspects of the defence investment plan, with the paper now expected to be delayed until 2026.

The UK will kick off a review of its EV sales targets next year instead of 2027 as the government pledged to be “responsive” to the car industry following changes to climate targets in Europe.

(Financial Times)

Australia Raises Inflation Outlook

Australia’s government revised the outlook for inflation sharply higher but still added to annual spending plans, leaving it up to monetary policy to lean against cost pressures.

(Reuters)

Central Bank Developments

RBNZ Governor Breman said the official cash rate was likely to remain low through next year, countering markets that have priced in two rate hikes.

The RBNZ announced it would lower some capital requirements for the country’s banking sector following a review.

RBI Governor Malhotra expects India’s interest rates to remain low for a “long period.”

Thailand’s central bank resumed cutting rates, taking its last window of opportunity this year to deliver support to a weak economy.

Bank Indonesia held its benchmark rate to head off pressure on the rupiah amid persistent foreign capital outflows.

South Africa’s annual inflation unexpectedly softened in November, edging closer to the central bank’s new 3% target and encouraging hopes for a rate cut next month.

(Reuters, Bloomberg, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal)

Global Coal Use Has Peaked

Global coal use has hit a ceiling and is set to begin a slow decline over the next five years as renewables and liquefied natural gas gain ground, the International Energy Agency said.

(Bloomberg)

India Cuts Russian Oil Imports

India’s Reliance Industries cut Russian oil imports by 16.9% in November to about 459,000 barrels per day, the lowest in nine months.

(Reuters)

Venezuela Debt Rally

Investors are snapping up Venezuela’s defaulted debt in a bet that a potential end to Maduro’s regime could unlock the once-distant prospect of repayment.

(Financial Times)

GEOPOLITICAL

Trump Orders Total Blockade of Venezuelan Oil

Oil prices rose after President Trump ordered a “total and complete blockade” of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, in a major escalation of his pressure campaign against Maduro.

Chevron remains a major shipper of Venezuelan oil to the US Gulf Coast despite increased tensions and sanctions.

(Wall Street Journal)

EQUITIES

Amazon in Talks for $10 Billion+ OpenAI Investment

Amazon is in talks to invest more than $10 billion in OpenAI and sell it more chips and computing power.

The deal would push OpenAI’s valuation above $500 billion, tying the AI startup ever closer to its infrastructure providers.

(Financial Times)

Waymo Raising at $100 Billion Valuation

Waymo is in early talks with potential investors to raise money at a valuation of at least $100 billion.

The round will be at least several billion dollars, possibly more than $10 billion.

(The Information)

SpaceX Enters Quiet Period Ahead of IPO

SpaceX has told employees the company is entering a regulatory quiet period, taking the rocket and satellite maker a step closer to an initial public offering slated for 2026.

(Bloomberg)

Medline IPO Raises $6.26 Billion

Medline raised $6.26 billion in an IPO, selling 216 million shares at $29 each and achieving a valuation over $50 billion.

The company’s net income increased 7.2% to $977 million, and net sales rose 10% over nine months ending in September.

(Wall Street Journal)

MetaX AI Chip Stock Jumps 8x on Debut

Artificial intelligence chip startup MetaX Integrated Circuits’ shares jumped almost eightfold on their first day of trading, another blockbuster Chinese debut after Moore Threads made a splash earlier this month.

The IPO raised 4.2 billion yuan ($596 million) for MetaX, which plans to fund high-performance GPU research and development.

(Wall Street Journal)

JPMorgan Shifts $350 Billion From Fed to Treasuries

JPMorgan Chase has withdrawn almost $350 billion in cash from its Federal Reserve account since 2023 and ploughed much of it into US government debt, as the bank defends itself against rate cuts that threaten to erode profits.

(Financial Times)

California Regulators Crack Down on Tesla

California regulators gave Tesla 90 days to meet compliance after an administrative law judge found the company deceived consumers by falsely implying its cars could drive on their own.

(Wall Street Journal)

China Vanke Offers Interest Payment, Seeks Principal Delay

China Vanke is offering to pay 60 million yuan ($8.5 million) in interest by December 22 on a 2 billion yuan bond while seeking a one-year delay to the principal repayment.

(Reuters)

Ford EV Retreat Reshapes Industry

Ford is retreating from EVs and taking a $19.5 billion charge as Trump administration policies reshape the auto industry.

Shares of LG Energy Solution fell 6% on the news.

The EU is set to scrap its effective ban on combustion engines after intense pressure from carmakers.

(Reuters, Bloomberg)

Meta Adopts New Age-Checking System

Meta is adopting a new age-checking system that promises to streamline how the social media group adapts to new child protection regulations around the world.

(Financial Times)

Japan Industrial Expansion

Japan’s Resonac Holdings is eyeing solid growth from Beijing’s ambition to build its own chip industry, leaving the door open for further investment in China.

Kawasaki Heavy Industries is seeking to expand production capacity for small to medium-sized gas turbines by about 50% as orders for gas power plants outpace supply.

(Bloomberg)

Other Notable Moves

E.W. Scripps’ board rejected an unsolicited acquisition bid from Sinclair at $7 a share.

Lennar logged lower profit as the company continued to offer incentives to drive sales in a stagnant housing market.

Volkswagen’s PowerCo is looking more closely at external financing options as its German parent reins in investment.

(Wall Street Journal, Reuters)

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