19th December 2025

MACRO

Bank of Japan Raises Rates to 30-Year High

The BOJ raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% in a unanimous decision - the highest level in three decades. The central bank said more increases are in the pipeline if conditions allow.

JGB 10-year yields hit 2% after the decision.

However, the yen was little moved initially and then weakened during Governor Ueda’s press conference as he gave little guidance on further hikes.

Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama said communications with Ueda have been very positive with no gap in thinking.

Japan’s core consumer prices rose 3.0% in November, in line with forecasts, staying above the BOJ’s 2% target for the 44th straight month.

The rate hike is likely a net positive for households - to the tune of about ¥800 billion ($5 billion) a year due to higher interest on savings, according to Mizuho Research.

(Newswires, Reuters, Bloomberg)

Trump Signs Law to Screen US Investment in Chinese Tech

President Trump signed into law new powers to screen and restrict US investment in Chinese tech firms, marking the most significant effort yet to police how American capital flows into businesses that bolster Beijing’s military and surveillance state.

A spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy said the legislation was “overstretching the concept of national security” and would “distort normal investment flows.”

(Wall Street Journal)

TikTok Signs US Joint Venture Deal

TikTok has signed an agreement to create a US joint venture under a deal brokered by Trump that leaves ByteDance with direct control of its core business operations in America.

ByteDance will form a joint venture with Oracle, Silver Lake and Abu Dhabi’s MGX.

(Financial Times)

China Boosting AI Chip Output With Retrofitted ASML Machines

Restricted chipmaking tools are being retrofitted to make advanced AI chips, exposing cracks in US-led export controls, according to FT sources.

Chinese private funds are sticking with long-term bets on AI and robotics shares, looking past the year-end tech selloff.

The PBOC’s reverse repurchase agreements this week signal an effort to balance liquidity ahead of year-end, fueling expectations for a January RRR cut.

(Financial Times, China Securities Journal)

US Inflation Data Has Problems That Will Linger

Missing October data means the BLS might not be able to calculate a year-over-year inflation rate in October 2026.

Housing costs, accounting for about one-third of the CPI, were affected by missing October rent data, which could skew inflation figures for six months.

(Wall Street Journal)

Japan Fiscal Policy Developments

Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama said the government will consider fiscal sustainability when compiling next year’s budget and aims to boost market confidence by lowering the debt-to-GDP ratio.

The Ministry of Finance revised its estimate of tax revenue lost from lifting the income tax-free threshold to ¥650 billion, up from ¥400 billion previously.

(Reuters)

UK Economy Shows Mixed Signals

UK retail sales fell for a second straight month in November (-0.1% vs expected +0.3%), adding to evidence the economy was damaged by uncertainty ahead of the budget.

However, government borrowing fell in November as the economy generated healthy tax receipts and debt costs declined - a modest boost for Chancellor Reeves.

Britons are more likely to buy big-ticket items than before the budget, suggesting sentiment has improved ahead of Christmas.

(Bloomberg)

Bank of Korea Takes Emergency Action

The Bank of Korea and the government took more measures to ease pressure on the won after an unscheduled board meeting, intensifying support for Asia’s worst-performing currency.

(Bloomberg)

Other Global Developments

The Bank of France raised its growth forecasts as the euro area’s second-largest economy shows resilience to political turbulence and fiscal uncertainty.

Consumer confidence in New Zealand rose to its highest level in more than four years, with card spending data showing a lift in discretionary spending.

(Bloomberg, Reuters)

GEOPOLITICAL

No major geopolitical headlines in this batch.

EQUITIES

OpenAI Seeking $100 Billion at $830 Billion Valuation

OpenAI is aiming to raise as much as $100 billion in a round that could value the company at up to $830 billion.

The startup aims to complete the round by the end of Q1 at the earliest.

Terms could still change, and it’s unclear whether there will be sufficient investor demand to reach the goal.

(Wall Street Journal)

Nike Turnaround Stumbles

Nike made some progress with its turnaround plan in Q2 but expects to return to a sales decline in the current quarter as weakness in China continues.

Shares fell 10%.

(Wall Street Journal)

FedEx Beats, Raises Outlook

FedEx posted higher revenue boosted by increased package shipments in the US and higher yields globally.

The company raised the bottom end of its full-year outlook even as it navigates global trade changes.

Shares rose 0.5%.

(Wall Street Journal)

Trump Reclassifies Cannabis

Trump directed the federal government to reclassify cannabis as a less-dangerous drug, a boost to the legal marijuana industry.

However, the move doesn’t legalize cannabis federally and wouldn’t directly resolve banking challenges for marijuana businesses - something investors had been hoping for.

(Wall Street Journal)

Wells Fargo Hits Highest-Ever M&A Ranking

Wells Fargo achieved its highest-ever ranking on US M&A league tables, reaching 7th place from 14th last year.

The bank’s investment banking growth is attributed to CEO Charlie Scharf’s strategic push, including hiring more than 90 managing directors.

(Wall Street Journal)

ANZ Faces Record Australian Penalty

ANZ will pay the largest combined penalties ever secured by Australia’s corporate regulator over risk failures and widespread misconduct, including in the handling of a $9.26 billion government bond sale.

(Wall Street Journal)

Toyota to Sell US-Made Cars in Japan

Toyota said it aims to begin selling its US-made Camry sedan, Highlander SUV and Tundra pickup in Japan starting next year to help improve Japan-US trade relations.

(Reuters)

Nidec Founder Steps Down

Nidec founder Shigenobu Nagamori will step down as chairman following the discovery of a series of accounting issues dating back years.

(Bloomberg)

Other Notable Moves

Coty sold its remaining stake in Wella to KKR for $750 million in cash.

BBVA announced its largest share buyback ever as it seeks to draw a line under its failed bid for Banco Sabadell.

The administrator winding down Terraform Labs has sued Jump Trading, alleging the trading giant unlawfully profited from and contributed to the crypto empire’s collapse.

Companies run by Tether’s secretive founder bought a crypto miner from an AI business owned by the stablecoin giant itself.

(Bloomberg, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal)

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