23rd September 2025

MACRO

Trump and Democrats Face Shutdown Showdown

US President Trump will meet top Democratic leaders - Representative Hakeem Jeffries and Senator Chuck Schumer - on Thursday to discuss government funding ahead of the September 30 deadline. The meeting comes as a visiting US congressional delegation reported that the dispute over Beijing's rare earth control remains unresolved, signaling persistent bilateral tensions. (Reuters, Bloomberg)

AI Funding Gap Threatens Tech Revolution

AI companies will need $2 trillion in combined annual revenue by 2030 to fund computing power, but are likely to fall $800 billion short, according to Bain & Co. Global incremental AI computing requirements could soar to 200 gigawatts by 2030, with the US accounting for half. Supply chain constraints or insufficient power supply could thwart progress. Bitcoin options show extreme positioning with biggest wagers below $95,000 and above $140,000 for month-end expiry. (Bloomberg)

Japan's Leadership Candidates Outline Fiscal Plans

LDP frontrunner Takaichi said Japan will need excess tax revenue to fight rising consumer prices, but issuing government bonds "could become unavoidable if the situation calls for it." Rival Koizumi pledged to use expected tax revenue increases and expenditure cuts to fund cost-of-living measures while maintaining fiscal discipline. Both emphasize solid economic growth as the basis for sound fiscal policy. (Bloomberg, Reuters)

China Signals Policy Flexibility Amid Trade Tensions

China may have scope to lower loan rates before year-end to stimulate domestic demand following Fed cuts that eased yuan pressure, though bank margin constraints limit room. China's top court reinforced that employer-worker workarounds to evade social insurance contributions are invalid, threatening jobs while funding depleted pension plans. Chinese buyers booked at least 10 Argentine soybean cargoes, taking advantage of low prices amid US trade tensions. (Shanghai Securities News, Reuters)

European Challenges Mount

EUR/GBP is extending upward momentum toward July peaks with big options turnover, signaling fresh bullish euro flows weeks ahead of the UK's Autumn budget. European natural gas options predict prices could hit €50 next summer, implying a 60% jump from current €32 levels. The EU is discussing postponing deforestation import bans for a second time after US and trading partner pressure. (Bloomberg, Financial Times)

Global Policy Shifts

UK Chancellor Reeves could raise £6 billion in income tax by targeting pensioners, landlords, and self-employed rather than employees. New Zealand is set to name Sarah Breeden, a Bank of England deputy governor, as its first foreign woman central bank head. Hong Kong battened down for Super Typhoon Ragasa, one of the strongest storms in years, suspending flights until Thursday. (Bloomberg, Reuters)

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GEOPOLITICAL

Australia's Critical Minerals Migration

Some of Australia's most advanced critical minerals producers are moving forward with US processing facility plans, despite Australia's strategic push to build domestic industry. This signals shifting supply chain dynamics amid geopolitical tensions. (Reuters)

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EQUITIES

Nvidia's $100 Billion OpenAI Alliance Reshapes AI

Nvidia assured customers its landmark $100 billion OpenAI investment and AI infrastructure expansion won't affect other client relationships. NewStreet Research analysis shows for every $10 billion Nvidia invests in OpenAI, the startup will spend $35 billion on Nvidia chips. Analysts expect similar deals with xAI and other "cash-constrained" players. Nvidia and TSMC are exploring silicon carbide solutions to overcome heat problems from power-hungry AI chips. (Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal)

TSMC Arizona Gains Major Clients

Apple and MediaTek both plan to have TSMC Arizona manufacture their latest 5G smartphone chips - the A19 Pro and Dimensity 9500 - currently built on TSMC's 3nm production lines in Taiwan. The timing depends on TSMC Arizona readiness, with clients pushing for quick progress. Oracle is seeking new Taiwanese AI server partners to help with $455 billion in remaining performance obligations, adding Quanta and Wiwynn to its Foxconn and Mitac suppliers. (CTEE, DigiTimes)

Mixed Corporate Signals

Trump warned that acetaminophen (Tylenol's active ingredient) is a potential autism cause, while touting leucovorin as a treatment option. Disney returned Jimmy Kimmel to late-night TV after a six-day suspension over controversial comments. Boeing received an $8 billion order from Uzbekistan Airways following Trump's conversation with the country's president. US lawmakers in Beijing raised a potential deal for China to buy more Boeing jets. (Wall Street Journal, Reuters)

Foundry Demand Shows Resilience

UMC received rush orders earlier than normal, suggesting US tariffs may not hurt demand as much as feared. Investment bank analysts speculate the first half of 2026 may see new demand waves from downstream chip customers. However, ASM International lowered H2 guidance citing weaker leading-edge logic and foundry demand, cutting FY25 revenue to the "low end" of 10-20% growth. (CTEE, Newswires)

European M&A Activity

Monte dei Paschi di Siena gained control of 86.3% of rival Mediobanca in a deal valuing the bank around $19 billion. Heineken is buying Costa Rican beverage and retail businesses for $3.2 billion to expand its Central American presence. Botswana's president aims to complete a majority stake deal in De Beers by month-end. (Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg)

This selection covers the most market-relevant developments across policy uncertainty, AI investment dynamics, and corporate strategic moves that matter most to your trading audience today.

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