28th April 2025

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TRADE:

• Trump asserted the longer term benefits of tariff policy on Truth, "When Tariffs cut in, many people’s Income Taxes will be substantially reduced, maybe even completely eliminated. Focus will be on people making less than $200,000 a year. Also, massive numbers of jobs are already being created, with new plants and factories currently being built or planned...THE EXTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE IS HAPPENING!!!" (Truth)
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent on Sunday did not back President Trump's assertion that tariff talks with China were under way and said he did not know if Trump had spoken to Chinese President Xi Jinping. (ABC)
• Bessent said he had interactions with his Chinese counterparts last week during IMF meetings in Washington, but did not discuss the standoff over Trump's tariffs. (RTRS)
• Bessent said a trade deal can take months, but a de-escalation and an agreement in principle can be achieved sooner and would keep tariffs from ratcheting back to the maximum level. Said he thinks there is a path to an agreement with China. (ABC)
• US officials plan to conduct staggered trade negotiations using a new template that sets common terms for many of the talks in an attempt to streamline talks, according to WSJ sources. Within the framework, U.S. officials would spell out demands for individual nations. (WSJ)
• Bessent was encouraged by "productive" early trade talks with Japan and South Korea this week, the Treasury said in a statement on Friday. (RTRS)
• Bessent noted the need for progress on fair and reciprocal trade between the US and the UK when he met with his British counterpart Reeves on Friday. The Treasury Department said they also held positive discussions on taxation, financial innovation and technology partnerships. (RTRS)
• Bessent urged Asian Development Bank President Masato Kanda to take concrete steps towards ending loans to China, the Treasury said on Friday. (RTRS)
• Trump and European Commission President von der Leyen agreed on Saturday during a short exchange on the sidelines of Pope Francis' funeral to meet at a later stage. (RTRS)
• Beijing Daily published an opinion piece Monday widely viewed as representing the Chinese leadership’s official stance on the trade war. The article highlighted preparing for a long and arduous struggle that suggested no room for compromise, a lack of faith in any verbal assurances, viewing the longer term struggle of the Sino-US relationship, and a pledge to fight to the end.
• China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Beijing stands on the side of international rules on U.S.-imposed tariffs and opposes protectionism, saying Beijing would seek solidarity with other countries on the tariff situation and exposes "extreme egoism" and the bullying of certain countries. (RTRS)
• Japan's top currency diplomat on Monday denied a media report that Bessent had told his Japanese counterpart at a bilateral meeting in Washington that a weak dollar and a strong yen are desirable. (RTRS)
• Japan and Vietnam agreed to boost bilateral trade and uphold global rules on the free flow of goods as Japan's PM Ishiba met Vietnamese leaders in Hanoi. (RTRS)
• Japan's Jera is considering participating in a proposed LNG export project in Alaska, as part of Japan’s efforts to negotiate a trade deal with the US. (BBG)
• Trump said on Saturday that American military and commercial ships should be allowed to travel through the Panama Canal and Suez Canal free of charge. (RTRS)
• Fast-fashion giant Shein raised US prices of its products from dresses to kitchenware ahead of imminent tariffs on small parcels. The average price for the top 100 products in the beauty and health category increased by 51% from Thursday, with several of the items more than doubling in price. (BBG)
• The LNG industry has warned the Trump administration it cannot comply with new rules aimed at forcing them to use US transport vessels by imposing levies on Chinese-built ships docking at US ports. (FT)
• Major EU importers of gas have said that the bloc’s new rules to cut methane emissions are complicating contract negotiations, just as the bloc tries to wrap increased energy purchases into a trade deal to appease Trump. (FT)
• South Korea's Industry Minister said on Saturday that Seoul plans to approach trade talks with the US "calmly and cautiously" ahead of working level talks this week. (RTRS)

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MACRO:

• Trump’s approval rating is dipping as he nears 100 days in office and Americans grow skeptical of his sweeping actions to transform government, new polling shows. (CNBC)
• Trump and his administration this week will highlight the accomplishments of his first 100 days in office, while looking toward the next 100 days with a focus on trade deals and peace talks, White House officials said. (RTRS)
• Former Fed Governor Warsh, with whom Trump is reported to have discussed replacing Powell with, on Friday unleashed a barrage of criticism of the Fed and argued for fundamental changes to how it operates. (RTRS)
• Fights are smoldering over the details of Trump's "big, beautiful" tax and spending bill, and several small groups of lawmakers have painted certain issues as nonnegotiable. (WSJ)
• Bessent and EU Commissioner for Financial Services Maria Luis Albuquerque discussed financial regulation and financial innovation on Friday, the Treasury said in a readout of their meeting. (RTRS)
• Goldman Sachs strats say it is not evident that foreign investors have been substantial outright sellers of U.S. Treasuries in recent weeks but gradual adjustments in global portfolios are likely. (WSJ)
• Policymakers in Beijing on Monday laid out policies to aid exporting companies, including plans to ensure troubled firms get the loans they need and boost domestic consumption to absorb the blow of US levies. (BBG)
• The vice head of China's state planner said on Monday he was "fully confident" the world's second-largest economy would achieve its economic growth target of around 5% for 2025, pledging new policies to be rolled out over the second quarter. (RTRS)
• China's President Xi Jinping pledged "self-reliance and self-strengthening" to develop AI in China, state media reported on Saturday, as the country vies with the U.S. for supremacy in AI. (RTRS)
• Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to visit China's international financial hub of Shanghai this week. The visit would be his first trip to the eastern Chinese city since November 2023. (RTRS)
• China's industrial profits returned to growth in the first quarter, official data showed on Sunday, but are likely to come under further pressure amid a trade war with the US. (RTRS)
• China said on Sunday it will improve tax refund policies for foreign tourists to boost inbound consumption, part of efforts to boost the economy as domestic demand remains tepid. (RTRS)
• China has re-exported more than 280,000 tons of LNG so far in April, the highest volume ever in a single month, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, likely spurred by higher prices abroad and weak domestic demand amid mild winter and robust inventories. (BBG)
• Imports of crude oil into China surged in March and have continued to accelerate in April, according to analysts, as the country replenishes stocks despite expectations a weaker global economy will reduce demand. (FT)
• China’s State Council approved 10 new reactors on Sunday in a vote of confidence for nuclear power to remain central to the nation’s clean energy transition. (BBG)
• Hong Kong's home prices slipped for a fourth month in March, government figures showed on Monday, as the ailing property market faced more economic headwinds. (RTRS)
• Two stock listings in Hong Kong launching on Monday and seeking to raise up to $270 million are showing that the region's equity markets remain active even as trade tensions between the U.S. and China has slowed offerings elsewhere. (RTRS)
• The BoJ is widely expected to signal a pause in policy normalization this week as US tariffs heighten global uncertainty, without shifting its stance on gradually raising interest rates when the outlook clears. (BBG)
• Heightened volatility and low liquidity are deterring Japanese life insurers from buying more of the nation’s sovereign bonds, increasing upward pressure on yields. (BBG)
• ECB policymakers are becoming increasingly confident about cutting interest rates in June as inflation continues its march lower, but there is little to no appetite for a big move, six sources told Reuters. (RTRS)
• ECB's Villeroy said he does not see any extra inflation for Europe and the ECB still has margin for rate cuts in Europe. (Newsquawk)
• The French government will propose combining or eliminating a third of government agencies by the end of the year in a bid to save money, the public accounts minister said on Sunday. (RTRS)
• Jordan Bardella plans to be the National Rally's presidential candidate in 2027 if the party's leader Marine Le Pen remains barred from running in Franc. (Le Parisien)
• Confidence among people in Britain about the economy over the next 12 months has fallen to the lowest on record, polling firm Ipsos MORI said on Sunday, with only a small number expecting improvement over the period. (RTRS)
• Australia's Labor government on Sunday pledged to bolster the country's universal healthcare system with a free medical advice line and telehealth service if it wins the May 3rd general election. (RTRS)
• Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers on Monday downplayed warnings that the country's AAA rating was under threat due to billions of dollars in election spending promises. (RTRS)
• Saudi Arabia’s foreign direct investment inflows fell for a third straight year in 2024, in a sign the kingdom continues to face challenges in attracting overseas investors. (BBG)

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GEOPOLITICS:

• A huge blast probably caused by the explosion of chemical materials killed at least 40 people and injured more than 1200 on Saturday at Iran's biggest port, Bandar Abbas. (RTRS)
• Iran and the US have agreed to continue nuclear talks next week, both sides said on Saturday, though Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi voiced "extreme cautious" about the success of the negotiations. (RTRS)
• Top officials in Trump's administration on Sunday pressed Russia and Ukraine to make headway on a peace deal following a one-on-one meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskiy at the Vatican a day earlier. (RTRS)
• German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said on Sunday that Ukraine should not agree to the U.S. proposal, saying it went too far in ceding swathes of territory in return for a ceasefire. (RTRS)
• In a Truth Social post on Saturday Trump rebuked Russian President Putin over recent attacks on Ukraine, saying "there was no reason for Putin to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns, over the last few days." (Truth)
• In a pre-taped interview that aired on CBS News' 'Face the Nation' on Sunday Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said Russia would continue to target sites used by Ukraine's military. (CBS)
• Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov held a call with US Secretary of State Rubio and exchanged views on Russia-US relations and they agreed to maintain contact at all levels. (TASS via Newsquawk)
• Greenland and Denmark agreed on Sunday to strengthen their ties in response to Trump's interest in taking control of the strategically located Arctic island. (RTRS)
• China has seized a disputed reef just kilometres away from the Philippines’ most important military outpost in the South China Sea, raising the risk of a new stand-off between the two rival claimants. (FT)
• Irish scale-up companies in radar, AI and surveillance tech are pivoting to new opportunities in defence and security and seeking to cash in on the EU’s huge spending splurge in the sector. (FT)

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EQUITIES:

• China's Huawei Technologies is preparing to test its newest and most powerful AI processor, hoping to replace some higher-end products of Nvidia. (WSJ)
• Nvidia B300 chip production has been pulled forward to May on TSMC’s 5nm process (N4P) and CoWoS-L advanced semiconductor packaging, and Bianca compute boards (1 CPU, 2 GPUs), according to local press sources. (CTEE via @dynstedt)
• Nvidia scraps modular GB300 redesign to fast-track production. (DigiTimes)
• Taiwan’s legislature passed a law that will ensure TSMC’s latest manufacturing technology remains in Taiwan and TSMC fabs overseas are at least one generation behind. (UDN via @dynstedt)
• China reportedly plans mega-merger of chip toolmakers—from 200 players to merely 10. (DigiTimes)
• Elon Musk's xAI Holdings is in talks with investors to raise roughly $20 billion in funding for his newly combined AI startup and social media business, valuing the Co. at more than $120 billion. (BBG)
• The Trump administration is under heavy pressure to decide how widely available weight loss medications should be and whether Medicare should cover them. So far, it has sided against the makers of the weight-loss medications, but the issue is far from settled. (Politico)
• Airbus is close to finalising a deal to take over some of supplier Spirit AeroSystems’ facilities, including the company’s Belfast site in Northern Ireland, with an agreement expected to be unveiled as early as next week. (FT)
• Germany's Merck entered into a definitive agreement to acquire U.S. biopharmaceutical company SpringWorks Therapeutics in a deal valued at around $3.9 billion. (WSJ)
• Mediobanca launched a surprise €6.3 billion offer for the wealth management arm of Italian insurer Generali, opening a potential defense strategy for the Milan-based bank amid Italy’s intensifying deal wave. (BBG)
• Pirelli's board is expected to approve on Monday an accord between shareholders to establish that the group's largest investor, China's state-owned Sinochem, does not exercise control over the tyre maker. (RTRS)
• TikTok will enter the online shopping industry in Japan within the next few months. (Nikkei)
• Toyota Motor said it is exploring the possibility of investing in a potential buyout of key parts supplier Toyota Industries - a buyout that reportedly could cost $42 billion. (RTRS)
• Nissan Motor wants to end vehicle production at its Wuhan plant in China by March 31, 2026 amid stiff competition from Chinese automakers. (RTRS)
• Saudi Aramco is stepping up investment in synthetic fuels derived from renewable energy, as it bets on the conventional combustion engine to remain a crucial part of transport despite the shift towards electric vehicles. (FT)

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