4th February 2026

MACRO

AI Disruption Fears Wipe $300 Billion Off Markets

New developments in AI sent shockwaves through software, data and systems stocks on Tuesday. The latest trigger was Anthropic’s new Claude plugin designed to automate legal work, raising fears that AI will supplant traditional software business models.

(Wall Street Journal)

Government Shutdown Ends

Trump signed narrowly passed funding legislation to end the partial government shutdown, kicking off 10 days of negotiations over immigration enforcement. Trump doubled down on his view that Republicans should “nationalise” voting, questioning whether certain states should continue running their own elections.

(Wall Street Journal)

Fed’s Miran Resigns White House Role

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran resigned from his job as a top White House economic adviser to honour his promise to step down if his time at the Fed extended past 31 January. He can stay on the Fed board until a successor - likely Warsh - is confirmed.

Home builders are proposing new policies to the White House to address the largest housing inventory surplus in 15 years, including streamlining federal permitting and a federally backed “rent-to-own” programme.

(Wall Street Journal)

Gold Bounces Near $5,100

Gold rebounded to near $5,100 on safe-haven demand as renewed US-Iran tensions boosted the metal’s appeal. The bounce came a day after gold posted its best single-day gain in over 17 years. Shanghai copper rose as investors reacted to China’s plan to expand strategic reserves.

Ken Griffin accused members of the Trump administration of enriching their families - a rare public rebuke from a prominent Wall Street figure. Michael Burry warned Bitcoin’s 40% plunge may worsen and do lasting damage to companies stockpiling it.

(Reuters, Financial Times, Bloomberg)

Japan: BOJ Unlikely to Intervene in Bonds

PM Takaichi should not count on BOJ help in taming sharp bond yield rises, according to Reuters sources. Recent moves fall short of meeting the “very high threshold” for intervention. JGB yields inched lower as fears of worsening fiscal conditions eased on bets Takaichi may walk back her pledge to cut consumption taxes on food if she wins in a landslide.

(Reuters)

China: Services Activity Picks Up

China’s services activity expanded at its quickest pace in three months in January, with stronger new orders pushing hiring to its highest since July. The yuan briefly hit a near 33-month high against the dollar. The PBOC plans 800 billion yuan in outright reverse repo for 4 February to keep liquidity stable ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday.

(Reuters, Shanghai Securities News)

Other Macro Developments

New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose to its highest since 2015 in Q4, signalling a long path out of recession. The leader of South Africa’s second-largest political party confirmed he’s stepping down in April.

(Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg)

GEOPOLITICAL

Iran Willing to Shut Down Nuclear Programme

Two Iranian officials told the NYT that Iran is willing to shut down or suspend its nuclear programme - considered a major concession. Tehran would prefer a US proposal to create a regional consortium for nuclear power.

(New York Times)

Taiwan Defence Budget Battle

If Taiwan’s opposition-controlled parliament continues to block $40 billion in proposed extra defence spending, the international community could misunderstand the island’s determination to defend itself, President Lai said.

(Reuters)

Other Geopolitical Developments

UK PM Starmer and Trump recognised the “strategic importance” of the US-UK air base in the Chagos Archipelago and will work closely to guarantee its operation. Rare earths customers are in a rush to find alternatives to Chinese suppliers, with more than 30 projects set for production this decade.

A Hong Kong-based company has started legal proceedings to challenge how Panama voided its contract to operate ports at either end of the Panama Canal.

(Reuters, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal)

EQUITIES

Nvidia: China Chip Sales Stuck, $20 Billion OpenAI Deal Nears

Nvidia’s H200 sales to China are still awaiting final Washington approval nearly two months after Trump greenlit exports. The State Department is reportedly pushing for tougher restrictions. Chinese customers aren’t placing orders until licence terms are clear.

Separately, Nvidia is nearing a deal to invest roughly $20 billion in OpenAI’s latest funding round. AMD forecast a slight Q1 revenue decline despite an unexpected boost from AI chip sales to China.

(Financial Times, Reuters)

Texas Instruments in Talks for $7 Billion Chip Deal

Texas Instruments is in advanced talks to acquire Silicon Laboratories for about $7 billion. A deal could be announced in the coming days.

(Financial Times)

Super Micro Eases AI Concerns

Super Micro gave a strong sales forecast for the current quarter and year ahead, easing concerns the server maker was failing to benefit from AI data centre demand. Shares gained in late trading.

(Bloomberg)

Microsoft Copilot Struggles

Survey data shows falling Copilot usage as the AI chatbot faces user frustration over confusing branding and interoperability issues.

A federal judge rejected Elon Musk’s attempt to throw out an SEC lawsuit alleging he waited too long to disclose his growing Twitter stake. The chief of Salesforce’s Tableau unit has left the company, raising concerns about executive churn.

(Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg)

Ford in Talks With Geely

Ford and China’s Geely are in discussions about a potential partnership as carmakers look to share technology and manufacturing costs. Musk’s team also visited Chinese solar manufacturers including Jinko Solar, sending solar shares surging.

(Reuters)

USA Rare Earth Files Share Offering

USA Rare Earth has more than $3 billion in potential funding for its domestic critical mineral supply chain and filed for up to a 76 million share offering.

(Bloomberg)

Other Equity Moves

Tether’s CEO downplayed the amount it will raise in its funding round - advisers have floated as little as $5 billion after investor reluctance, down from the $15-20 billion initially discussed. Chipotle offered a full-year sales target below Wall Street expectations.

Infineon expects higher sales and will increase AI-related investments. Credit Agricole posted a Q4 profit drop on an accounting charge. UBS plans a $3 billion buyback and signalled more to follow. Lloyds plans a corporate banking push.

Novartis guided toward a decline in core operating profit this year despite strong 2025 results. Equinor earnings slid on weaker oil and gas prices. Banco Santander approved a €5 billion buyback. Panasonic’s battery unit profit fell on weaker North American EV demand.

Japan’s Mitsubishi UFJ booked a 6% rise in Q3 profit.

(Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Reuters)

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