9th December 2025

MACRO

Trump Opens Door for Nvidia Chip Sales to China

President Trump announced that Nvidia will be allowed to ship its H200 chips to approved customers in China and other countries, subject to a 25% fee. AMD, Intel and other US chipmakers will receive the same treatment. China’s foreign ministry responded by emphasising its belief that “mutual benefit through cooperation with the US is essential.”

(Truth Social, Reuters)

Supreme Court Poised to Expand Presidential Power Over Regulators

The US Supreme Court appeared ready Monday to expand the president’s power to fire heads of regulatory agencies, though one pivotal justice expressed a desire to insulate the Federal Reserve from political pressure. Separately, a US court struck down Trump’s ban on issuing new wind energy permits, dealing a blow to the administration’s efforts to undermine clean energy initiatives.

(Wall Street Journal, Financial Times)

Central Banks Signal Tightening Bias

The RBA held its cash rate at 3.60% but hinted at a potential hike next year, with Governor Michele Bullock calling an end to the easing cycle as policymakers assess whether a pickup in inflation requires extended pause or tightening. “Recent data suggest the risks to inflation have tilted to the upside,” the bank said.

The Bank of Japan’s Governor Ueda said the central bank will ramp up bond buying if long-term rates rise sharply, noting recent moves have been “somewhat rapid.” He also gave subtle nods to a December rate hike, saying the likelihood of the BOJ’s baseline outlook materialising has been gradually increasing.

Meanwhile, investors are increasing bets on an ECB rate rise, which could leave the Federal Reserve as an outlier in 2026 as the Eurozone, Australia and Canada face higher borrowing costs.

(Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Reuters, Financial Times)

China Pushes Back on Tariffs, Seeks to Boost Markets

Premier Li Qiang said the “mutually destructive consequences of tariffs have become increasingly evident” in remarks at a dialogue with heads of the IMF, World Trade Organization and World Bank. Officials from China’s securities watchdog called for rapid expansion of the public REIT market to ease developers’ liquidity pressures and meet investor demand for yield.

(Reuters)

Japan IPO Market Booms

IPOs in Japan in 2025 raised $7.7 billion, the most capital in seven years, as companies like JX Advanced Metals and SBI Shinsei Bank sold shares in billion-dollar deals - underscoring a boom in Asia’s equity markets. Hong Kong’s securities regulator meanwhile asked investment banks to ensure IPO applications are up to standard.

(Bloomberg, Reuters)

Germany Approves Record Military Spending

German lawmakers are set to approve 29 military procurement contracts worth a record €52 billion next week, part of the government’s push to transform the Bundeswehr into Europe’s strongest conventional army. On trade, German exports rose slightly in October, beating expectations thanks to EU trade, though exports to the US and China fell sharply.

(Bloomberg, Reuters)

France Faces Knife-Edge Budget Vote

Premier Sébastien Lecornu is braced for a tight vote on a welfare package that includes freezing France’s unpopular pension reforms, as rightwing and centrist lawmakers threaten to withhold support ahead of the main budget. Separately, the ECB once again asked Italy to rethink declaring its gold reserves the property of its people - a move critics say could open the door to selling off bullion.

(Financial Times, Bloomberg)

UK Consumer Spending Slumps

UK consumer card spending fell at its fastest pace since 2021 in November, according to Barclays data, as uncertainty around the Budget weighed on household purchases during peak retail season. Employers have also become less likely to advertise salaries or offer non-pay benefits as a hiring slump persists.

(Financial Times)

South Korea Pension Fund Sells Dollars

South Korea’s National Pension Service, one of the world’s largest pension funds, has been selling dollars in tactical foreign currency hedging to counter the won’s recent weakness. India’s longer interest-rate swaps have jumped since last week’s central bank meeting as some investors bet the rate-cut cycle has ended.

(Bloomberg)

GEOPOLITICAL

Japan-China Military Tensions Escalate

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his German counterpart that Japan is threatening China militarily, calling it “completely unacceptable” - after Japan said Chinese fighter jets had aimed radar at Japanese military aircraft. Separately, 11 Chinese and Russian military planes entered and left South Korea’s air defence identification zone on Tuesday.

(Reuters)

Russian Oil Reaches China via India Transfer

A shipment of Russian oil from US-sanctioned Rosneft made its way to Chinese waters after a long, meandering journey involving a rare tanker transfer off India and a brief stop near South Korea - highlighting continued efforts to circumvent Western sanctions.

(Bloomberg)

EQUITIES

OpenAI to Release New Model This Week

OpenAI is set to launch its new model, called 5.2, this week as executives hope to gain momentum with coding and business customers. They overruled employees who asked to delay the release for more refinement. Separately, Google is being probed by the EU over whether it has abused its dominance using AI tools to squeeze out competition.

(Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg)

PepsiCo Strikes Deal With Elliott

PepsiCo agreed to cut costs and lower prices after reaching a deal with activist investor Elliott Management, in an effort to revive its slowing food business.

(Wall Street Journal)

Ford Partners With Renault on European Turnaround

Ford is turning to French rival Renault to help reboot its European business - a fresh sign of the upheaval caused by Chinese automakers outside the US.

(Wall Street Journal)

China Vanke Crisis Deepens

China Vanke’s offshore creditors have started fielding requests for talks with potential advisors, a sign investors are preparing for a worsening of the developer’s debt crisis.

(Bloomberg)

Goldman Revamps Japan M&A Leadership

Goldman Sachs named Satoshi Yamagata and Masateru Takechi as co-heads of its merger advisory business in Japan, part of its latest push to expand in the country.

(Bloomberg)

Novartis Strikes $1.7 Billion Biotech Deal

Novartis will pay UK biotech Relation Therapeutics as much as $1.7 billion to help find drug targets to treat allergic diseases.

(Bloomberg)

BHP Sells Power Network Stake to BlackRock

BHP agreed to sell a stake in the inland power network used by its Western Australia iron-ore business to BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners in exchange for $2 billion in funding.

(Wall Street Journal)

Other Notable Moves

Reddit is launching new safety features globally for under-18s ahead of Australia’s social media ban. Toll Brothers gave a cautious outlook on house deliveries despite higher Q4 revenue. South Korean police raided Coupang headquarters over a data breach affecting 30 million people. Thyssenkrupp swung to a Q4 profit but flagged challenging conditions ahead. Australia is set to issue a gas market review that could curb LNG exports from its east coast.

(Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, Reuters)

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