9th February 2026

MACRO

Japan: Takaichi Wins Landslide Victory

PM Takaichi led her LDP party to a thumping victory, winning a powerful mandate to deepen US ties and rev up the economy. The LDP and its coalition partner are on track to win at least 310 of 465 seats.

Takaichi said she’d like to proceed on the premise that the LDP’s election manifesto reference to suspending the food sales tax for two years without issuing fresh government bonds had earned public approval.

Japan is concerned about rapid forex moves and is monitoring them with a high sense of urgency. Real wages shrank in December for a 12th consecutive month. Bankruptcy cases rose in January as companies struggled with rising labour costs. Japanese companies are not obliged to accept unsolicited takeover bids even when offered large premiums, an industry ministry official said.

(Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Reuters)

China Told Banks to Trim US Treasury Holdings

Chinese regulators have advised financial institutions to rein in their US Treasury holdings, citing concerns over concentration risks and market volatility. The guidance was issued before the Trump-Xi call and was framed around diversifying risk rather than geopolitics.

China’s central bank extended its gold-buying streak to 15 months, adding 40,000 troy ounces last month.

(Bloomberg)

US: Goldman Sees More CTA Selling Ahead

Goldman’s trading desk expects more selling from trend-following funds this week, with CTAs expected to remain net sellers regardless of market direction. If the S&P falls beneath 6707, it could unlock $80 billion of additional selling.

Treasury Secretary Bessent said he expects the Fed to move cautiously in trimming its balance sheet. Top academics have dismissed Kevin Warsh’s AI productivity argument for rate cuts. House Minority Leader Jeffries said Democrats are insisting on their full list of ICE reform demands before agreeing to pass remaining government funding.

Retail investors poured $430 million into SLV over six trading days as silver prices plunged.

(Bloomberg, Financial Times)

UK: Starmer’s Chief of Staff Quits

Morgan McSweeney quit as Starmer’s Chief of Staff on Sunday, becoming the casualty of the Peter Mandelson ambassador furore that now threatens the prime minister’s position.

Top gilt investors have urged Rachel Reeves to relax Treasury constraints on development corporation borrowing to streamline big projects and boost growth. Retail investors pulled a net £11.1 billion from UK equity funds in 2025 - the tenth straight year of outflows.

(Bloomberg, Financial Times)

Europe: EU Exploring Fresh Defence Funding

The EU is exploring fresh defence funding after its initial €150 billion loan programme was oversubscribed. The ECB will assess the euro’s recent rally in its quarterly forecasts due in March.

(Bloomberg)

Other Macro Developments

Hedge funds turned the most bullish on Brent since early April as traders hedged against US-Iran conflict risk. Australia’s two main opposition parties have revived their coalition. Thai PM Anutin’s party won Sunday’s election, raising prospects of a more stable coalition.

Argentina’s Milei is pushing to overhaul the country’s rigid labour market, igniting a clash with unions.

(Bloomberg, Reuters, Financial Times)

GEOPOLITICAL

US-Iran: “Very Good” Talks Continue Next Week

Trump said the US had “very good” talks with Iran and negotiations would continue next week. The president said Iran was “willing to do much more than they would have a year and a half ago” but warned consequences would be “very steep” without a deal. Iran’s president called the talks “a step forward” while pushing back against intimidation.

(Financial Times, Bloomberg)

India Pulling Back From Russian Oil

Indian refiners are avoiding Russian oil purchases for April delivery and are expected to stay away longer. Imports could almost halve from already weaker levels as New Delhi seeks to seal a trade deal with Washington.

(Reuters, Bloomberg)

US-Taiwan-China Tensions

The US is compiling a large arms sale of Patriot missiles and other weapons for Taiwan. Beijing has privately warned it could jeopardise Trump’s state visit in April. Chinese military flights into a sensitive area near Taiwan in January fell to the lowest level of President Lai’s term.

(Financial Times, Bloomberg)

Ukraine: US Wants Negotiations Done by June

Zelenskyy says the US is proposing to finish all necessary negotiations to end Russia’s invasion by June. Russia launched a large-scale drone attack over the weekend, striking Naftogaz facilities in central Ukraine.

(Bloomberg)

EQUITIES

Anthropic Closing $20+ Billion Round

Anthropic is ironing out final details on a funding round now expected to raise more than $20 billion at a $350 billion valuation - double the originally sought $10 billion - thanks to excess investor interest. The round could close as soon as next week.

(Bloomberg)

Netflix Facing Antitrust Review

Netflix is facing a US government antitrust review into its nearly $83 billion deal to buy Warner Bros Discovery, as Paramount continues to pursue a rival bid.

(Financial Times)

SpaceX: Moon City in 10 Years

Elon Musk said SpaceX has shifted focus to building a “self-growing city” on the moon, which could be achieved in less than 10 years. SpaceX still intends to start on a Mars city within five to seven years, “but the overriding priority is securing the future of civilization and the Moon is faster.”

(Reuters)

Eli Lilly-Innovent Deal

Chinese drugmaker Innovent Biologics struck a partnership with Eli Lilly to develop new treatments that could generate up to $8.5 billion in milestone payments.

(Wall Street Journal)

FedEx Consortium Buying InPost

A consortium comprising Advent International, FedEx, A&R and PPF agreed to buy Polish parcel-delivery provider InPost for $9.22 billion.

(Wall Street Journal)

Other Equity Moves

Hims & Hers will stop selling a copycat Wegovy weight-loss pill just two days after launching it. Trump backed Nexstar Media’s proposed acquisition of Tegna. Kroger plans to hire Walmart veteran Greg Foran as its next CEO.

Samsung is boosting HBM4 DRAM investment. A WSJ article profiles Nitto Boseki, the sole supplier of T Glass needed for AI chips - companies including Apple are dispatching managers to Japan to negotiate directly.

China’s Montage Technology jumped more than 50% in its Hong Kong debut after raising HK$7.04 billion. NatWest is closing in on a takeover of Evelyn Partners after beating Barclays. UniCredit guided for continued growth after Q4 results.

Alibaba’s Qwen chatbot temporarily stopped issuing coupons due to customer overload. Stecon Group shares led a rally in companies tied to Thailand’s election winner.

(Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, Reuters)

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