9th May 2025

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TRADE:

• Bloomberg sources, echoing the NY Post, suggest Trump is considering reducing China tariffs to below 60% as a first step that they feel China may be prepared to match. Progress in two days of scheduled discussions could see those cuts being implemented as soon as next week. (BBG)
• The US has set the removal of China's restrictions on rare earth exports as a key target for upcoming trade talks amid disruption across industries, according to Bloomberg sources. (BBG)
• US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said on CNBC the US will roll out dozens of trade deals over the next month, but a 10% tariff imposed on most countries will likely stay. (CNBC)
• Lutnick on Bloomberg said that trade deals with South Korea and Japan could take significantly more time to complete than the framework agreement with the UK.
• China's Vice Foreign Minister Hua said the United States cannot sustain what it is doing in trade policy and China has full confidence in its ability to manage US trade issues. (RTRS)
• FT profile of China's He Lifeng, who is leading trade talks with the US in Switzerland this weekend, notes the officials close ties to Xi Jinping and growing role in foreign relations. (FT)
• China's exports of rare earths in April fell 15.6% from the month before after the country, which dominates global supply, announced controls on shipments of some of the critical minerals. (RTRS)
• China signed a letter of intent with exporters in Argentina to buy about $900 million of soybeans, corn and vegetable oil, the latest indication that the Asian nation will avoid sourcing from the US during Trump’s trade war. (BBG)
• Germany’s new chancellor, Friedrich Merz, and US President Donald Trump agreed trade disputes should be resolved quickly and discussed the need for close cooperation between the two nations. (BBG)
• A treasurer at one large Taiwanese life insurer, cited by the FT, said they believed the central bank allowed the currency appreciation as part of trade negotiations between the US and Taiwan, saying they would keep hedging but not sell their US dollar assets. (FT)

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MACRO:

• Banks and brokers are seeing rising demand for currency derivatives that bypass the dollar, as trade tensions add a sense of urgency to a years-long shift away from the greenback. (BBG)
• China’s exports rose more than forecast in April, driven by Asia and Europe, even as shipments to the US slumped sharply in the first month after Trump targeted its goods with tariffs above 100%. (BBG)
• China's April crude oil imports slowed from the previous month but rose 7.5% from a year earlier due to abundant deliveries of sanctioned shipments and as state refiners built stocks during maintenance shutdowns. (RTRS)
• Reuters poll suggests China's April new yuan loans probably shrank significantly from March levels as the trade war with the United States further weighed on the market at a traditionally quiet time of the year. (RTRS)
• Gains in Japan’s wages cooled more than expected in March while early trade figures for April showed export growth slowing, adding to the case for the BoJ to proceed cautiously with rate hikes. (BBG)
• Japan’s exports slowed in the first 20 days of April as the US tariff campaign intensified with new car and across-the-board levies. (BBG)
• Leading UK fund managers have warned at a Downing Street meeting that sentiment towards the London stock market is at “rock bottom” and urged ministers to consider mandating UK pension funds to allocate at least 5% of their investments to domestic equities. (FT)
• Morgan Stanley has removed a June cut from its BoE forecast, but still sees Bank Rate ending the year at 3.25%, now seeing consecutive cuts from August to December, before a terminal rate of 2.75% is reached in H1 26.
• India’s central bank doesn’t expect wild swings in the rupee but is ready to use foreign reserves to preserve currency stability as tensions with Pakistan escalate, according to Bloomberg sources. (BBG)
• Mexico is reaping the benefits of a US travel boycott by Canadians angry at the policies of President Donald Trump, with visitor numbers soaring as airlines add new flight routes into the country. (FT)
• Vietnam is planning a 500 trillion dong (around $20 billion) loan package involving 21 banks to finance infrastructure and technology projects aimed at boosting economic growth -- a financing move that is historically atypical for the country. (Nikkei)

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GEOPOLITICAL:

• US President Trump called for a 30-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine to pave the way for talks on a lasting peace agreement, and threatened to impose further sanctions if a truce is violated. (Truth Social via BBG)
• North Korea’s latest short-range missile tests aimed to simulate nuclear attacks on the US and South Korea, Pyongyang’s state media said Friday. (BBG)
• China and Russia have agreed to strengthen cooperation in matters of international law, according to a joint statement released following Chinese President Xi Jinping's meeting with Russia's Vladimir Putin. (RTRS)
• The UK will sanction as many as 100 oil tankers that it says are part of a shadow fleet of vessels helping Russia to move its oil. (BBG)

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EQUITIES:

• Nvidia plans to release a downgraded version of its H20 AI chip for China in the next two months, following U.S. export restrictions on the original model, according to Reuters sources. (RTRS)
• Coinbase Global reported a sharp drop in quarterly profit, even as revenue grew from the same period last year. (WSJ)
• Lyft increased its stock buyback program to $750 million and beat first-quarter profit estimates, signaling steady demand for its ride-hailing services. (RTRS)
• Pinterest forecast current-quarter revenue above estimates, signaling its AI tools are boosting advertising spend on the platform. (RTRS)
• Expedia Group’s first quarter was hurt by weaker-than-expected travel demand to and from the U.S., a trend that Chief Executive Ariane Gorin warned is continuing in the current quarter. (WSJ)
• Paramount Global, the parent of CBS and MTV, reported first-quarter results that beat analysts’ estimates, reflecting the improving performance of its Paramount+ streaming platform. (BBG)
• Illumina cut its full-year adjusted profit guidance for the second time in three months as it grapples with the impact of tariffs and China banning imports of its gene-sequencing machines. (BBG)
• Costco is tapping Affirm Holdings to let the retailer’s online shoppers pay over time for a transaction, an option that’s been helping many merchants sell bigger-ticket items and gives consumers more comfort in buying them. (BBG)
• CoStar Group Inc. has entered a binding agreement to buy property portal Domain Holdings Australia Ltd. in a deal that values the target at A$3 billion ($1.92 billion). (BBG)
• British Airways owner IAG said it had placed an order for 53 new Airbus and Boeing long-haul aircraft. (RTRS)
• Adobe Inc. will offer a package of its products to the government at a discounted rate following scrutiny on software spending by the Trump administration. (BBG)
• TSMC’s April revenue smashed its all-time monthly high, rising 48.1% year-on-year to NT$349.57 billion (US$10.76 billion), and up 22.2% versus March.
• Three of Taiwan’s top AI server makers, Quanta, Wistron, and Wiwynn, reported their best-ever revenue for the month of April.
• SMIC said it will invest more than $7 billion this year to expand capacity and market share, even as its peers take a cautious stance due to the tariff war between Washington and Beijing. (Nikkei)
• Bain Capital is seeking to sell the China business of data centre operator WinTriX DC Group, in a deal that could value the business at over $4 billion, according to Reuters sources. (RTRS)
• Commerzbank reported a rise in earnings and revenue for the first quarter that exceeded analysts’s expectations, after higher commission income offset a decline in interest income. (WSJ)

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